A hierarchical Bayesian model for forecasting state-level corn yield

Historically, the National Agricultural Statistics Service crop forecasts and estimates have been determined by a group of commodity experts called the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The corn yield forecasts for the “speculative region,” ten states that account for approximately 85 % of corn production, are based on two sets of monthly surveys, a farmer interview survey and a field measurement survey. The members of the ASB subjectively determine a forecast on the basis of a discussion of the survey data and auxiliary information about weather, average planting dates, and crop maturity. The ASB uses an iterative procedure, where initial state estimates are adjusted so that the weighted sum of the final state estimates is equal to a previously-determined estimate for the speculative region. Deficiencies of the highly subjective ASB process are lack of reproducibility and a measure of uncertainty. This paper describes the use of Bayesian methods to model the ASB process in a way that leads to objective forecasts and estimates of the corn yield. First, we use small area estimation techniques to obtain state-level forecasts. Second, we describe a way to adjust the state forecasts so that the weighted sum of the state forecasts is equal to a previously-determined regional forecast. We use several diagnostic techniques to assess the goodness of fit of various models and their competitors. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to fit the models to both historic and current data from the two monthly surveys. Our results show that our methodology can provide reasonable and objective forecasts of corn yields for states in the speculative region.     

Recent levels of organochlorine pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls in sediments of the sewer system in Hanoi, Vietnam

The occurrence, temporal trend, sources and toxicity of PCBs and organochlorine pesticides were investigated in sediment samples from the sewer system of Hanoi City, including the rivers Nhue, To Lich, Lu, Set, Kim Nguu and the Yen So Lake. In general, the concentrations of the pollutants followed the order DDTs > PCBs > HCHs (β-HCH) > HCB. However, the pollution pattern was different for the DDTs and PCBs when the sampling locations were individually evaluated. The concentrations of the DDTs, PCBs, HCHs, and HCB ranged from 4.4 to 1100, 1.3 to 384, <0.2 to 36 and <0.2 to 22 ng/g d.w., respectively. These levels are higher than at any other location in Vietnam. Compared to measurements from 1997, the DDTs, PCBs, β-HCH and HCB levels show an increasing trend with DDT/DDE ratios, indicating very recent inputs into the environment although these persistent compounds are banned in Vietnam since 1995.     

Deciphering the role of nanoparticles for management of bacterial meningitis: an update on recent studies

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Meningitis is an inflammation of the protective membranes called meninges and fluid adjacent the brain and spinal cord. The inflammatory progression...     

The structure of the fire fighting foam surfactant Forafac®1157 and its biological and photolytic transformation products

For several decades, perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) has widely been used as a fluorinated surfactant in aqueous film forming foams used as hydrocarbon fuel fire extinguishers. Due to concerns regarding its environmental persistence and toxicological effects, PFOS has recently been replaced by novel fluorinated surfactants such as Forafac®1157, developed by the DuPont company. The major component of Forafac®1157 is a 6:2 fluorotelomer sulfonamide alkylbetaine (6:2 FTAB), and a link between the trade name and the exact chemical structure is presented here to the scientific community for the first time. In the present work, the structure of the 6:2 FTAB was elucidated by ¹H, ¹³C and ¹⁹F nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and high-resolution mass spectrometry. Moreover, its major metabolites from blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) and turbot (Scophthalmus maximus) and its photolytic transformation products were identified. Contrary to what has earlier been observed for PFOS, the 6:2 FTAB was extensively metabolized by blue mussel and turbot exposed to Forafac®1157. The major metabolite was a deacetylated betaine species, from which mono- and di-demethylated metabolites also were formed. Another abundant metabolite was the 6:2 fluorotelomer sulfonamide. In another experiment, Forafac®1157 was subjected to UV-light induced photolysis. The experimental conditions aimed to simulate Arctic conditions and the deacetylated species was again the primary transformation product of 6:2 FTAB. A 6:2 fluorotelomer sulfonamide was also formed along with a non-identified transformation product. The environmental presence of most of the metabolites and transformation products was qualitatively demonstrated by analysis of soil samples taken in close proximity to an airport fire training facility.     

Radiofrequency exposure in the French general population: Band, time, location and activity variability

Information on the exposure of individual persons to radiofrequency (RF) fields is scarce, although such data are crucial in order to develop a suitable exposure assessment method, and frame the hypothesis and design of future epidemiological studies. The main goal of this survey is to assess individual RF exposure on a population basis, while clarifying the relative contribution of different sources to the total exposure. A total of 377 randomly selected people were analyzed. Each participant was supplied with a personal exposure meter for 24-hour measurements (weekday), and kept a time–location–activity diary. Electric field strengths were recorded in 12 different RF bands every 13 s. Summary statistics were calculated with the robust regression on order statistics method. Most of the time, recorded field strengths were not detectable with the exposure meter. Total field, cordless phones, WiFi-microwave, and FM transmitters stood apart with a proportion above the detection threshold of 46.6%, 17.2%, 14.1%, and 11.0%, respectively. The total field mean value was 0.201 V/m, higher in urban areas, during daytime, among adults, and when moving. When focusing on specific channels, the highest mean exposure resulted from FM sources (0.044 V/m), followed by WiFi-microwaves (0.038 V/m), cordless phones (0.037 V/m), and mobile phones (UMTS: 0.036 V/m, UMTS: 0.037 V/m). Various factors, however, contributed to a high variability in RF exposure assessment. These population-based estimates should therefore be confirmed by further surveys to better characterize the exposure situation in different microenvironments.     

Monitoring of ozone effects on the vitality and increment of Norway spruce and European beech in the Central European forests

The ozone effect on Norway spruce (Picea abies (L) Karst.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) was studied on 48 monitoring plots in 2005-2008. These plots represent two major forest tree species stands of different ages in eight regions of the Czech Republic. The forest conditions were represented by defoliation and the annual radial increment of individual trees. The ozone exposure was assessed by using modeled values of mean annual O(3) concentration and the AOT40 index. The malondialdehyde (MDA) content of the foliage was analysed and used as an indicator of oxidative stress. The correlation analysis showed a significant relation of Norway spruce defoliation to the AOT40 exposure index, and European beech defoliation to the MDA level. The radial increment response to ozone was significant only for the European beech: (a) the correlation analysis showed its decrease with increasing AOT40; (b) the regression model showed its decrease with increasing mean annual ozone concentration only at lower altitudes (<700 m a.s.l.).     

Mammalian cell-line based toxicological evaluation of paper mill black liquor treated in a soil microcosm by indigenous alkalo-tolerant Bacillus sp

Organic pollutants present in the soil of a microcosm containing pulp and paper mill black liquor were extracted with hexane/acetone (1:1 v/v) to study the biodegradation and detoxification potential of a Bacillus sp. gas chromatography-mass spectroscopic (GC-MS) analysis performed after biodegradation showed formation of simpler compounds like p-hydroxyhydrocinnamic acid (retention time [RT] 19.3 min), homovanillic acid methyl ester (RT 21.6 min) and 3,5-dimethoxy-p-coumaric alcohol (RT 24.7 min). The methyltetrazolium (MTT) assay for cytotoxicity, 7-ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) assay for dioxin-like behavior and alkaline comet assay for genotoxicity were carried out in the human hepatocarcinoma cell line HuH-7 before and after bacterial treatment. Bioremediation for 15 days reduced toxicity, as shown by a 139-fold increase in black liquor’s LC₅₀ value, a 343-fold reduction in benzo(a)pyrene equivalent value and a 5-fold reduction in olive tail moment. The EROD assay positively correlated with both the MTT and comet assays in post biodegradation toxicity evaluation.     

Proposal for selective differentiating of nerve agent G and V type with utilisation of modified Ellman’s method

We studied issues of organophosphorus agents’ analysis. Immobilised enzyme–inhibitors complexes (e.g. acetylcholinesterase-organophosphate nerve agent) were studied with modified Ellman’s biochemical method utilised for assessment of acetylcholinesterase activity. Biochemical reactions are widespread and they are the most frequent used analytical methods for determination of nerve agents. This modified method is based on the nucleophilic reactions of mono- and bispyridinium aldoximes of a type 2-PAM, MMB-4 and HI-6, their homologues and isomers with enzyme–inhibitor complexes. The procedure for a gradual analysis of G and V type, Sarin, Cyclohexylsarin, Soman, Tabun, agent VX and R-33 was proposed in terms of studied nucleophilic substitution reactions quantification results. This method enables selective determination of these chemical warfare agents. A gradual analysis was evaluated by statistic method of probabilistic calculus. This type of analysis can be used for assessment of acetylcholinesterase inhibitors in very low concentrations close to hygienic limits.     

Benthic community structure, diversity, and productivity in the shallow Barents Sea bank (Svalbard Bank)

The Barents Sea is among the most productive areas in the world oceans, and its shallow banks exhibit particularly high rates of primary productivity reaching over 300 g C m^?2year^?1. Our study focused on the Svalbard Bank, an important feeding area for fishes and whales. In order to investigate how benthic community structure and benthic secondary production vary across environmental gradients and through time, we sampled across the bank and compared results with a similar study conducted 85 years ago. Considerable variability in community structure and function across bank corresponded with differences in the physical structure of the habitat, including currents, sedimentation regimes and sediment type, and overlying water masses. Despite an intensive scallop fishery and climatic shifts that have taken place since the last survey in the 1920s, benthic community structure was very similar to that from the previous survey, suggesting strong system resilience. Primary and secondary production over shallow banks plays a large role in the Barents Sea and may act as a carbon subsidy to surrounding fish populations, of which many are of commercial importance.     

Meta-analysis of environmental contamination by alkylphenols

Alkylphenols and alkylphenol ethoxylates (APE) are toxics classified as endocrine-disrupting compounds; they are used in detergents, paints, herbicides, pesticides, emulsifiers, wetting and dispersing agents, antistatic agents, demulsifiers, and solubilizers. Many studies have reported the occurrence of alkylphenols in different environmental matrices, though none of these studies have yet to establish a comprehensive overview of such compounds in the water cycle within an urban environment. This review summarizes APE concentrations for all environmental media throughout the water cycle, from the atmosphere to receiving waters. Once the occurrence of compounds has been assessed for each environmental compartment (urban wastewater, wastewater treatment plants [WWTP], atmosphere, and the natural environment), data are examined in order to understand the fate of APE in the environment and establish their geographical and historical trends. From this database, it is clear that the environment in Europe is much more contaminated by APE compared to North America and developing countries, although these APE levels have been decreasing in the last decade. APE concentrations in the WWTP effluent of developed countries have decreased by a factor of 100 over the past 30?years. This study is aimed at identifying both the correlations existing between environmental compartments and the processes that influence the fate and transport of these contaminants in the environment. In industrial countries, the concentrations observed in waterways now represent the background level of contamination, which provides evidence of a past diffuse pollution in these countries, whereas sediment analyses conducted in developing countries show an increase in APE content over the last several years. Finally, similar trends have been observed in samples drawn from Europe and North America.